Michael Mauboussin

How should we think about risk vs. uncertainty? A logical starting place is Frank Knight’s distinction: risk has an unknown outcome, but we know what the underlying outcome distribution looks like. Uncertainty also implies an unknown outcome, but we don’t know what the underlying distribution looks like. So games of chance like roulette or blackjack are risky, while the outcome of a war is uncertain. … [ Read more ]

Getting Out of Embed: The Role of Social Context in Decision Making

Decision making is an inherently social exercise. Here, Michael Mauboussin details three shocking psychological studies that reveal just how another’s action or opinion can profoundly change your own.