Instinct Can Beat Analytical Thinking

Researchers have confronted us in recent years with example after example of how we humans get things wrong when it comes to making decisions. We misunderstand probability, we’re myopic, we pay attention to the wrong things, and we just generally mess up. This popular triumph of the “heuristics and biases” literature pioneered by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky has made us aware of flaws … [ Read more ]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Accepting Uncertainty, Embracing Volatility

The defining characteristic of future change, according to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is that it is impossible — and foolhardy — to try to predict it. Nonetheless, the dominant impulse among policymakers and so-called experts is to attempt to reduce volatility rather than deal with it more productively. In his new book, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, Taleb argues that in order for individuals, institutions, … [ Read more ]