A Better Crystal Ball: Improving the Science of Forecasting

If you’ve ever seen an ad for an investment product, you’ve heard the phrase “past performance does not guarantee future results.” Because of course, it doesn’t. But that doesn’t stop businesses, governments, organizations and individuals from trying to predict the future. In an effort to improve our odds, a government research agency — the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA)– has been sponsoring annual competitions … [ Read more ]