Author Talks: What’s new in Valuation?

The economic principles of valuation don’t change that much, but McKinsey Partner Tim Koller explains why they remain more critical than ever as executives seek to address digital, geopolitical, climate, and other trends affecting their businesses.

The cost of (un)doing business

In a divestiture, companies must overcome the complexities of disentanglement.

What I learned from Daniel Kahneman

Daniel Kahneman was the psychologist whose findings helped launch behavioral economics. The encouraging words he shared with me offer good news for organizations.

Tim Koller

Psychologists have identified more than 60 cognitive biases that affect how people make decisions. We boiled them down into four groups: group think; confirmation bias; loss aversion, which leads us to put more weight on losses than gains; and anchoring or inertia—anchoring decisions in what we did in the past.

Tim Koller

Public companies are often not set up for innovation, partly because their compensation systems tend to be short-term-oriented and because the boards aren’t deeply enough involved in innovation. […] We’ve seen a tremendous amount of innovation in the past 20 years, but a lot of it has come from younger, newer companies. Despite all the talent, capital, and customer knowl­edge established corporations have, there … [ Read more ]

Tim Koller

Many perceive the markets as short-term oriented, forcing management to worry only about quarterly earnings. Our research shows that successful companies are typically those with longer-term horizons. There are plenty of investors who have long-term horizons as well, but they generally need to talk to a company only once or twice a year to make their decisions. Short-term investors are noisier. They probably drive the … [ Read more ]

Tim Koller

Value creation comes from revenue growth and return on capital, which drive cash flows.

Five paths to TSR outperformance

It’s hard for companies to significantly beat long-term market TSR, harder still for the largest corporations, and hardest of all in the face of low growth. But industry endowment needn’t be destiny.

Which Metrics Really Drive Total Returns to Shareholders?

McKinsey analysis of more than 2,200 large global companies reveals the importance of monitoring both economic-profit growth and revenue growth.

Tim Koller, Dan Lovallo

[A premortem is where] at the start of a project, you imagine that the project went wrong and think about what could have caused that result. You put yourself into the future and, in a non-judgmental way, think of all the things that could derail the project. It creates a safe way for people to discuss their concerns without being perceived as criticizing the project. … [ Read more ]

How Executives Can Help Sustain Value Creation for the Long Term

Companies create more shareholder value when executives and directors concentrate on long-term results. A new report highlights behaviors that allow them to maintain a long-term orientation.

Marc Goedhart, Tim Koller

There are many trade-offs that company managers struggle to make, in which neither a shareholder nor a stakeholder approach offers a clear path forward. This is especially true when it comes to issues affecting people who aren’t immediately involved with the company. These so-called externalities—perhaps most prominently, a company’s carbon emissions affecting parties that otherwise have no direct contact with the company—can be extremely challenging … [ Read more ]

Five Ways That ESG Creates Value

Getting your environmental, social, and governance (ESG) proposition right links to higher value creation. Here’s why.

J. André de Barros Teixeira, Tim Koller, and Dan Lovallo

Multiple studies have indicated the degree to which business leaders are loath to kill projects. One such study developed by IESE Business School Professor Luis Huete found that companies and individuals that have had a track record of success have a harder time killing projects, because they carry with them an ingrained belief that they can turn everything into gold, so long as everyone works … [ Read more ]

Admit It, Your Investments Are Stuck in Neutral

New research shows that companies that know how to shift critical resources where and when they’re needed share common traits. Rigor is the first one.

How To Be Objective About Budgets

Addressing anchoring bias can lead to more accurate budget forecasts, better budget conversations, and more dynamic resource reallocation.

How To Take the ‘Outside View’

It may be easier than you think to debias your decisions and make better forecasts by building the “outside view.”

The Case Against Corporate Short Termism

Despite strong pressures to focus on the short term, it is possible to manage for the long term and reap considerable rewards.