Nassim Nicholas Taleb

If you can explain one thing and its opposite using the same data you don’t have an explanation. It takes a lot of courage to keep silent.

Learning to Expect the Unexpected

A black swan is an outlier, an event that lies beyond the realm of normal expectations. Most people expect all swans to be white because that’s what their experience tells them; a black swan is by definition a surprise. Nevertheless, people tend to concoct explanations for them after the fact, which makes them appear more predictable, and less random, than they are. Our minds are … [ Read more ]