189 Posts Found

Research in behavioral economics and behavioral operations offers ample evidence that humans frequently make poor choices in the face of uncertainty. Whereas classic economic theory suggests individuals make decisions under risk by calculating an “expected value” (that is, the average value or “utility” of all the possible outcomes weighted by their probabilities), extensive analysis of actual behavior shows systematic violation of this rule and suggests … [ Read more ]

Content: Quotation | Authors: Geri Gibbons, Maria Ibanez, Mark Cotteleer | Source: Deloitte Review | Subject: Decision Making

I notice increasing reluctance on the part of marketing executives to use judgment; they are coming to rely too much on research, and they use it as a drunkard uses a lamp post for support, rather than for illumination.

Content: Quotation | Author: David Ogilvy | Subjects: Decision Making, Management, Marketing / Sales

Judgment is the ability to combine hard data, questionable data, and intuitive guesses to arrive at a conclusion that events prove to be correct. Judgment-in-action includes effective problem solving, the design of strategies, the setting of priorities, and intuitive as well as rational judgments. Most important, perhaps, it includes the capacity to appraise the potentialities of co-workers and opponents.

Content: Quotation | Source: McKinsey Quarterly | Subjects: Decision Making, Judgement, Management, Personal Development

Just imagine, a few centuries ago, who would have thought that everyone will be able to read and write? Now, today, we need risk literacy. I believe if we teach young people, children, the mathematics of uncertainty, statistical thinking, instead of only the mathematics of certainty – trigonometry, geometry, all beautiful things that most of us never need – then we can have a new … [ Read more ]

Content: Quotation | Author: Gerd Gigerenzer | Source: Harvard Business Review | Subjects: Decision Making, Risk Management

Explanatory power is a red herring when the objective is predictive accuracy.

Content: Quotation | Author: Michael E. Raynor | Source: The Conference Board Review | Subjects: Decision Making, Management, Trends / Analysis

The next time someone offers you advice, ask yourself these two questions: Can I imagine the opposite ever making sense, and will I know if I’ve acted on it? If the answer to either one is “no,” you’re at grave risk of being led astray.

Content: Quotation | Author: Michael E. Raynor | Source: The Conference Board Review | Subjects: Decision Making, Personal Development, Thought

If deductive reasoning were all it ever took to reach a correct conclusion, there would be far fewer bad decisions. The problem is, far too often the facts are either ambiguous or incomplete in ways we cannot see until it is too late. When we apply reason to unwittingly incorrect or unknowingly under-specified premises, we end up with precise, convincing, and completely wrong conclusions. It’s … [ Read more ]

Content: Quotation | Author: Michael E. Raynor | Source: The Conference Board Review | Subjects: Decision Making, Thought

Matthew Ridgway, U.S. army general in the Korean War, says, “The hard decisions are not the ones you make in the heat of battle.” A lot of people can do that. The hard part is actually sitting in a meeting and speaking your mind about a bad idea that’s going to put thousands of lives in jeopardy — and convincing the decision makers that it’s … [ Read more ]

Content: Quotation | Author: Hayagreeva Rao | Source: Stanford University | Subjects: Decision Making, Leadership

Every manager must make the distinction between “correlation” and “cause and effect” regularly, as the topic comes up in many guises.

Content: Quotation | Author: Thomas C. Redman | Source: Harvard Business Review | Subjects: Decision Making, Management, Trends / Analysis

Next time you find yourself in a crisis moment, ask this question: what is the best outcome from here? Firstly, those around you will likely go into shock. We are not used to hearing an intelligent, helpful question in a crisis situation. Once they get over their shock, it will work for three reasons: It assumes that there actually is an outcome; It focuses everybody … [ Read more ]

Content: Quotation | Author: Peter Fuda | Source: ChangeThis | Subjects: Crisis Management, Decision Making, Leadership

Decision-making is the ultimate reason why accountants and finance people exist. The way to judge the quality of an accounting or performance management system is to determine whether it is spurring quality decision-making.

Content: Quotation | Author: Charles Horngren | Source: Business Finance Magazine | Subjects: Accounting, Decision Making, Finance

The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance–it is the illusion of knowledge.

Content: Quotation | Subjects: Decision Making, Knowledge, Personal Development, Thought

Good judgement comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement.

Content: Quotation | Subjects: Decision Making, Experience

Everything is vague to a degree you do not realize till you have tried to make it precise.

Content: Quotation | Subjects: Decision Making, Thought

In all affairs it’s a healthy thing now and then to hang a question mark on the things you have long taken for granted.

Content: Quotation | Subjects: Decision Making, Management, Thought

When things get too complicated, it sometimes makes sense to stop and wonder: Have I asked the right question?

Content: Quotation | Subjects: Decision Making, Management, Thought

Gentlemen, I take it that we are all in complete agreement on the decision here. Then, I propose that we postpone further discussion […] to give ourselves time to develop disagreement and perhaps gain some understanding of what the decision is all about.

Content: Quotation | Author: Alfred P. Sloan | Subjects: Decision Making, Management, Organizational Behavior, Teamwork

Man can always be blind to a thing as long as it is big enough.

Content: Quotation | Subjects: Decision Making, Organizational Behavior, Thought, Vision

Simple decision rules, structures and relationships are not likely to be effective approaches when the task at hand involves making decisions in the context of complex systems. Ironically, many of our most embedded management practices—such as designing for optimization and for efficiency—only exacerbate the risks of things going wrong at a systems level. Somewhat counter-intuitively, the most robust complex systems are often not designed for … [ Read more ]

Content: Quotation | Authors: Gökçe Sargut, Rita Gunther McGrath | Source: Ivey Business Journal | Subjects: Decision Making, Management, Organizational Behavior, Risk Management

People automatically associate input related to quantity (how long it takes to make a car) with output quality (how well it performs). While in many cases, input information does directly correspond to outcome, in some cases it does not. Yet humans are hardwired to automatically associate input and output. And people can prey on your input bias, causing you to make poor decisions or judgments … [ Read more ]

Content: Quotation | Authors: Maurice Schweitzer, Stephanie Overby | Source: CIO Magazine | Subjects: Decision Making, Organizational Behavior, Personal Development, Personality / Behavior, Thought