Michael E. Raynor

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If deductive reasoning were all it ever took to reach a correct conclusion, there would be far fewer bad decisions. The problem is, far too often the facts are either ambiguous or incomplete in ways we cannot see until it is too late. When we apply reason to unwittingly incorrect or unknowingly under-specified premises, we end up with precise, convincing, and completely wrong conclusions. It’s a distinction that logicians have long appreciated: A valid argument is one in which the conclusion follows from the premises; a sound argument is one that has the added benefit of being based on true premises.

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