Waves are caused by excesses of production, investment, and liquidity in the expansion phase that carries the seeds of its own destruction, leading to overproduction, investment and lending, shortages of raw materials, rising costs, and, eventually, declining demand, profits, and investment. People see the long view as deterministic. They are afraid that they can’t predict things over such a long cycle. But I like determinism. There is a comfort to it. It makes investment planning easy.