How to Make Better Forecasts and Decisions: Avoid Face-to-face Meetings

In his book, The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki turned conventional wisdom upside down when he showed that the average opinion of a crowd is frequently more accurate than the opinions of most of its individual members. In this article, in addition to pointing out the strengths and weaknesses in that book, Scott Armstrong considers whether or not traditional face-to-face meetings are an effective way … [ Read more ]

Dave Barry

If you had to identify, in one word, the reason that the human race has not achieved, and never will achieve, its full potential, that word would be meetings.

The Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy

Using findings from empirically-based comparisons, this article develops nine generalizations that can improve forecast accuracy. The author finds that these are often ignored by organizations, so that attention to them offers substantial opportunities for gain. The article offers recommendations on how to structure a forecasting problem, how to tap managers’ knowledge, and how to select appropriate forecasting methods.