I think one thing we’ve learned — and the lesson has been repeated recently — is that we can’t predict the macro economy very well. Another thing to keep in mind is that the global macroeconomic environment is not the main determinant of the success of individual companies, or even of countries. Because if it were — if that’s what made the difference — then we wouldn’t have the huge disparities in performance that we see, because everyone’s sharing the same global environment. Why was Britain such a success? It’s an island with no resources. Shouldn’t it have been Russia? No, Russia was a basket case. You can compare countries that have been split apart: East Germany and West Germany, North Korea and South Korea. It seems to come down to the local environment, and the decisions that countries and companies make. What is important is whether or not you have an environment that encourages productivity growth, in which managers can focus on running their businesses.
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