Risk has its place in a calculus of probabilities. It lends itself to quantitative expression – as when we say that the chances of finding a defective part in a batch are two out of 100. In the framework of benefit-cost analysis, the risk of an innovation is how much we stand to lose if we fail, multiplied by the probability of failure.
Uncertainty is quite another matter: a situation is uncertain when it requires action but resists analysis of risks. For example, a gambler takes a risk in an honest game of blackjack when, knowing the odds, he calls for another card. But the same gambler, unsure of the odds or unsure of the honesty of the game, is in a situation of uncertainty.
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