Phil Rosenzweig [Archive.org URL]

The great unspoken issue is about payoffs, and the degree to which payoffs are skewed in an industry. In an industry with many players, low barriers to entry and where only a small number will make a lot of money, the payoffs are highly skewed. If this is the case, you cannot afford to take a conservative approach. So winning is not about limiting the downside in situations like this. Only companies that have an appetite for risk in that industry will find themselves winning.

Strategy is making choices under conditions of uncertainty. And you cannot make the right strategic choices without understanding your industry and how much risk you need to take on.

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