This year, companies are reluctant to make predictions about their financial performance in the months ahead. The problem, according to the companies, is not that they don’t want to present a gloomy picture; it is that they just don’t know how the economy will perform. Risk management models have been criticized for failing spectacularly to predict or prepare firms for the crisis now shaking the world. According to experts from Wharton and elsewhere, the trouble lies less in the models than in the decisions that get made based on them.
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