Are You 90% Sure You’ll Hit That Target? Check Out Your Knowledge Calibration

Do managers think they know more than they actually do? Are they overconfident? If so, what does this mean for their ability to make decisions? Wharton marketing professor Wes Hutchinson and Joseph Alba, a colleague from the University of Florida, examine these questions in a study that explores the links between confidence and accuracy. One conclusion: If you’re 90% sure you’ll hit a target, the real odds may be closer to 70%.

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