What is it that makes luck so dominant in the determination of outcomes? Almost every system of even moderate complexity is subject to random variation. Because of this, in any system with a large number of players engaged in repeated attempts to win, some will pile up seemingly remarkable streaks simply as a consequence of that randomness. And the greater the randomness, the longer and hence more seemingly astonishing a given player’s winning streak might seem.
The prominence of luck, and our singular ability to ignore it, is downright dangerous. Much of what passes for advice on how to succeed—in business, in investing, in romance—appears to be based on an examination of randomness. That advice, if followed, amounts to tinkering with complex systems we only partially understand, and that almost always increases the unpredictability of the system itself.
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