Michael J. Mauboussin [Archive.org URL]

If you want to become world-class as a violinist or a chess player, areas where little luck is involved, you need roughly 10,000 hours of deliberate practice. What’s crucial is that your results, as you improve, will be a reliable indicator of your skill. as a result, feedback in these domains can be clear and unequivocal. If you compete in a field where luck plays a role, you should focus more on the process of how you make decisions and rely less on the short-term outcomes. the reason is that luck breaks the direct link between skill and results—you can be skillful and have a poor outcome and unskillful and have a good outcome.

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