I don’t like scenario planning, because people don’t think out of the box. So scenario planning may focus on four, five, or six scenarios that you can envision, at the expense of others you can’t. Instead of looking at scenarios and forecasts, you should be looking to see how fragile your portfolio is. How vulnerable are you to model error? How vulnerable is your cash flow to changes in any parameter of your calculations? My idea is to base your navigation on fragility.
Content: Quotation
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Source: McKinsey Quarterly
Subjects: Future, Risk Management, Strategy
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Source: McKinsey Quarterly
Subjects: Future, Risk Management, Strategy
Related Content
- All the Options
[Archive.org URL] - Future-Proofing Your Organisation [Archive.org URL]
- How corporations learn from scenarios [Archive.org URL]
- Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios [Archive.org URL]
- Managing the Unthinkable: Scenario-Based Enterprise Performance Management [Archive.org URL]
- Scenario Planning: An Innovative Approach to Strategy Development [Archive.org URL]
- The Use and Abuse of Scenarios [Archive.org URL]
Like this content? Why not share it?
There Are No Comments
Click to Add the First »
Click to Add the First »