Tobi Lütke

Your skill in decision-making is directly proportional to your quality of information acquisition. So, how good are you at making decisions? How good are you at acquiring information?

Baba Shiv

In the real world, there is no such thing as making the right decision. You make the decision and then make the decision right.

Peter Koestenbaum

Reflection doesn’t take anything away from decisiveness, from being a person of action. In fact, it generates the inner toughness that you need to be an effective person of action — to be a leader. Think of leadership as the sum of two vectors: competence (your specialty, your skills, your know-how) and authenticity (your identity, your character, your attitude). When companies and people get stuck, … [ Read more ]

The Tactical Guide to Making Better Decisions When Starting and Scaling Companies

For the past couple of years, Annie Duke has been sharing her advice with founders and angel investors in closed sessions for the First Round community, but given our focus on open-sourcing so others in the tech ecosystem can learn, we thought readers of The Review would be curious to see a few pages from her decision-making playbook, tailored specifically for the startup context.

In this … [ Read more ]

Rick Song

As individuals, we focus way too much on one decision versus another, but not nearly enough on the meta question of the context that would cause that decision to change.

Eric J. McNulty

People tend not to factor their own ignorance into their decisions. Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman described this phenomenon as “WYSIATI,” or “what you see is all there is.” My colleagues and I developed an antidote to this called driving to the known, which plots knowledge along two axes: what you know and what can be known. Confirmed facts are what you know. The questions … [ Read more ]

Five Ways to Avoid the Pitfalls of Binary Decisions

Before you decide, check how the question is framed to ensure you have all the information you need and have considered all your options.

Annie Duke

If I want to make a good decision, I want to identify people I respect who are well-informed and yet have a completely different opinion than mine. And I want to spend time exploring that and understanding their point of view. I might be wrong, and if I’m wrong, I’ll benefit from having someone correct me. But even if I’m not wrong, I’m going to … [ Read more ]

Dave Girouard

The art of good decision making requires that you gather input and perspective from your team, and then push toward a final decision in a way that makes it clear that all voices were heard. […] I wouldn’t call it consensus building — you don’t want consensus to hold you hostage — but input from others will help you get to the right decision faster, … [ Read more ]

How Noisy Is Your Company?

In Noise, a professorial supergroup explains the causes and consequences of the inherent variability in professional judgment.

Darren Lee, Mike Pino, Ann Johnston

Many conventional teams are inductive, starting with a theory and looking for data that applies; others are deductive, trying to form hypotheses only after all known data is gathered and analyzed. Abductive reasoning, by contrast, is an iterative process. You start with the data you have and test it, drawing a preliminary hypothesis and continuing to adjust the concept over time. The types of problems … [ Read more ]

A Framework for Leaders Facing Difficult Decisions

Many traditional decision-making tools fall short when it comes to the complex, subjective decisions that today’s leaders face every day. In this piece, the author provides a simple framework to help guide leaders through these difficult decisions. By interrogating the ethics (what is viewed as acceptable in your organization or society), morals (your internal sense of right and wrong), and responsibilities associated with your specific … [ Read more ]

Gokul Rajaram

Consensus means no ownership. What’s important is not that everyone agrees, but that everyone is heard and then the right person makes a decision.

First Round Review

The art of decision-making isn’t always about capturing some elusive “best” decision — it’s about making the most of information available, garnering trust across stakeholders and executing with conviction.

The 6 Decision-Making Frameworks That Help Startup Leaders Tackle Tough Calls

High-stakes decisions are seldom clearly cut. On a team, it’s difficult to get consensus on what the “best” option even means; with an excess of choices, leaders can fall into the paralysis of indecision, wasting precious time and opportunities. How do you make a choice that optimizes for both speed and sagacity? Should you place more weight on data, or go with your gut? How … [ Read more ]

Three Keys to Faster, Better Decisions

Decision makers fed up with slow or subpar results take heart. Three practices can help improve decision making and convince skeptical business leaders that there is life after death by committee.

James Everingham

You can have more decisions than decision-makers, but if you have more decision-makers than decisions, that’s when you run into problems.

James Everingham

When you think of transparency, you usually default to the communication aspect: telling everyone what’s happening or admitting when you’ve made a mistake. But when folks say that things aren’t transparent, what they’re probably getting at is that decision-making isn’t transparent. It’s the feeling that decisions sometimes roll on down from the lofty perch of the leadership team, seemingly out of nowhere. Instead, pull back … [ Read more ]

How To Take the ‘Outside View’

It may be easier than you think to debias your decisions and make better forecasts by building the “outside view.”

Tyler Odean

Cognitive biases create our reality. The best we can do is accommodate and lean into them — we can’t escape them.