New Model for Predicting the Trajectory of New and Existing Products

When it comes to analyzing and predicting the market penetration of new products, the Bass model has long been considered the standard benchmark. New research by Ashish Sood, an assistant professor of marketing at Emory University’s Goizueta Business School, and coauthors addresses a fundamental concern of managers everywhere: how fast consumers will adopt the new products that companies introduce. In their paper, “Functional Regression: A New Model for Predicting Market Penetration of New Products,” which will soon be published in Marketing Science, the researchers show how their model integrates information about different countries, different markets and different products to predict several things, including the future penetration of a product or the years to take off.

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