Scenarios and Long-term Visioning: Critical Elements of Technology Strategy [Archive.org URL]

In a balanced technology portfolio, short-term projects must meet the immediate needs of the business, while longer-term investments should address the strategic priorities of the future. These include investments in pacing technologies, i.e., those that will create future competitive advantage. However, although most new technologies require at least a decade of development, today’s strategic plans rarely devote significant attention to timeframes beyond three to five years. Clearly, this is too limited a perspective for a truly balanced technology portfolio. Companies need a longer-term vision of the business to provide the strategic framework for longer-term technology investments.

This article describes a process for identifying effective pacing technology investments in companies where long-term strategies may not exist.

Editor’s Note: offers a nice overview of Arthur D. Little’s approach to scenario planning

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