Carl Spetzler, Hannah Winter, Jennifer Meyer

Conventional thinking […] confuses a good decision with a good outcome. Most will say, “We cannot know how good a decision is until we’ve seen the results.” That makes no sense in a world of uncertainty and unforeseeable events that decision makers cannot control. A good decision, for example, might be undermined by poor implementation. Or events on the far side of the world may foil a decision maker’s best made plans. The reverse is also true: a poor-quality decision may have a good outcome thanks to good luck.