our approach to prediction seems stuck in the past. Most business forecasts fail to include measurable outcomes and are not recorded, so it is hard to know if we are even getting better at them.
Research from organizational psychologist Philip Tetlock, the co-author of Superforecasting, suggests an alternative. Studying forecasting tournaments where anonymous experts predicted future events, Tetlock found that some forecasters could consistently predict better than others. Rather than possessing some innate talent, so-called “superforecasters” demonstrate what Tetlock describes as a “growth mindset,” or a willingness to learn from past mistakes and continually update their theoretical priors. Our ability to predict, like any other skill, can improve with practice.
At Twitch, a subsidiary of Amazon, we saw the promise in this research. If an individual can gain a predictive edge, so can a company. We created a program that teaches all our employees to become better forecasters regardless of their quantitative background, organizational role, or area of expertise.
We’ve learned a lot from our experiences at Twitch, and discovered some best practices for how organizations may implement their own forecasting training programs, create a culture of forecasting, and better anticipate the future.
Author: Danny Hernandez
Source: Harvard Business Review
Subjects: Decision Making, Management, Productivity / Work Tips
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